Straws in the wind
The NHS
The NHS is crumbling and cannot continue for much longer in its current form. Free healthcare for all at the point of need was possible in the late 1940s and early 1950s but with ever more costly and complex interventions this is no longer the case. None of the modern imaging equipment had been invented when the NHS was formed. There were no CT scanners; MR scanners; PET CT scanners; linear accelerators or proton therapy machines in the1950s There was no robotic surgery and most drugs cost a few shillings. Now every big diagnostic imaging machine costs more than £1 million and a proton therapy installation might cost over £100 million. A number of new drugs cost more than £1000 for each daily dose and may be required for the rest of a patient's life. The UK could spend its entire GDP on the NHS and still it would not be enough to pay for the best treatments for the entire population. NHS hospital food has to be low cost and therefore tends to be both unappetising and poor in nutrition. As high quality nutritious food is an essential component of successful convalescence the lack of it leads to worse outcomes. Currently NHS treatments range all the way from excellent to appalling. Waiting lists get ever longer and are exacerbated by strikes by doctors and other healthcare professionals. The NHS is overburdened by low grade bureaucracy and has its performance regularly impacted by government interference. As it drifts towards ever poorer outcomes compared with health care providers in other developed nations more and more people are opting for private healthcare either in the UK or overseas. Private healthcare is expensive and out of reach for the majority of the population. As a result, poor people generally suffer more and die sooner than their richer counterparts. Political and business leaders have recognised the dangers of the population bomb and are content to see the demise of poor, sick, elderly and unproductive members of society. The NHS has become another tool in their toolbox.
Energy costs
Energy costs are very important both to industries, (and hence employment), and to individuals but again poorer members of the population are affected most. The price of electricity has risen sharply over the past few years and energy costs in the UK are some of the highest in the developed world. There are several reasons for these high energy costs. They include "green" subsidies for energy production systems such as wind and solar power that would not be economically viable otherwise; general taxation and the impact of geopolitical events such as the war in Ukraine and the resulting embargo on Russian gas. Manufacturing industries tend to consume large amounts of electricity and if electricity costs are high there is a strong incentive to move manufacturing operations to locations where electricity is less expensive. This results in less employment opportunities for manufacturing workers and since they tend have lower incomes, this impacts poorer people the most. Also, if energy costs account for 50% of a person's disposable income a doubling of energy costs will wipe out the remaining 50%. On the other hand if energy costs are only 1% of a person's disposable income a doubling to 2% is not going to have much impact on that person's lifestyle. If a person on a low income is not able to afford enough energy to heat their home they are more likely to suffer illness. High energy costs thus have a disproportionate effect on the poor. Energy costs are therefore another tool in the toolbox of our political and business leaders.
The rush to carbon zero
Every major political party has accepted the anthropogenic climate change dogma and throughout the developed world countries are enacting laws to reduce the emissions of so called greenhouse gases. The main gas attracting political attention is Carbon Dioxide while some attention is being given to methane. The fact that approximately 95% of the greenhouse effect is due to water vapour seems to be ignored. The Earth has been subjected to climate changes ever since it was formed and has experienced much hotter and much colder temperatures throughout its history. There is nothing unusual about the current temperatures. It was warmer during the Roman occupation when red grapes were grown successfully as far North as Yorkshire and it was cooler during Victorian times when people ice skated on the Thames. It seems likely that the activities of mankind must have some effect on the climate but natural effects such as variations in the sun's radiation; volcanic eruptions and cloud levels dominate climate changes. Carbon dioxide levels do not corelate with temperature changes over geological time but there is some corelation from about 1900 to the present. Corelation does not equal causation of course. A dog is an animal born with four legs but an animal born with four legs is not necessarily a dog.
The infrared absorption spectrum of carbon dioxide, (its ability to retain heat), is almost saturated so increasing the levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will have an ever diminishing impact on temperatures. If levels continue to increase we shall soon reach the point where no further temperature effect is possible. For some reason these facts are ignored by most climatologists and politicians. The national and international media are complicit in creating alarm about climate change. Last year on ITV's News at Ten programme the presenter Julie Etchingham , with great anxiety in her voice, introduced a piece about Antarctica's Western Ice shelf melting. Dramatic pictures of ice breaking off the ice shelf were shown. Here was clear evidence of the effects of climate change. Missing from this emotive piece was that the Western Ice shelf has been melting for at least 40 years but at the same time Antarctica has been cooling and the total amount of ice over the entire continent has been increasing! So much for objective fact based reporting by the media! In the 1970s climate experts began predicting catastrophic and runaway temperature increases if we did not reduce carbon dioxide emissions. By the year 2000 we were told that sea levels would rise by 3 metres or more and coastal and low lying cities like New York and London would be inundated. Carbon dioxide emissions continued but there was no significant temperature change and sea levels stayed largely as before. New York and London were unaffected.
The UK emits around 1% of industrial carbon dioxide, but for the UK to achieve net carbon zero the cost has been estimated as £3 trillion by the National Grid. (National Grid – Future Energy Scenarios 2020). That equates to about £44,000 for every person living in the country. The Office for Budget Responsibility and the government Committee on Climate Change has used the figure of £1.4 trillion. These are eye watering amounts of money and will impoverish all but the richest if these policies are pursued. As stated earlier, the UK only emits around 1% of global industrial CO2 so even the most avid anthropogenic climate change enthusiast would have to admit that nothing the UK does could possibly have any measurable effect on the climate. China emits almost 30% of the global total. India emits over 7%. (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, 2022) .
The report Absolute Zero was commissioned by the British Government and published in 2019 by Cambridge University. It was produced by a group of scholars from Imperial College London; Oxford, Cambridge, Bath, Nottingham and Strathclyde Universities. To achieve zero carbon emissions by 2050 the recommendations include curbs or complete elimination of airports; shipping; construction of new buildings; blast furnace steel; cement; livestock and eating beef and lamb. They recommend all airports should close by 2030 except Heathrow; Glasgow and Belfast. Those may remain open until 2050. Political and business leaders will, no doubt, continue to travel in private jets. The property company, Savills estimated that the cost of compliance to meet legal requirements for insulation and energy efficiency for shops in the UK is around £90 billion and that 91% of all our shops are affected, (Daily Telegraph 8th April 2023). These costs will inevitably pass on to the retailers who will be faced with the choice of either increasing prices or closing down. Of course there is absolutely no need to achieve carbon zero by 2050 and to do so would lead to extreme poverty and a massive reduction in the quality of life for the majority of the population. These plans to reduce carbon emissions are flawed in so many ways that it is hard to know where to start. Stopping methane emissions by stopping production of beef and lamb is ridiculous. Methane is a reactive gas and only remains in the atmosphere for about a week after being emitted. Carbon dioxide is essential for plant life and many of the world's leading scientists including two Nobel prize winners have stated that in their view there is no climate crisis. The entire CO2 debate is nonsense. Enforcing the reduction of CO2 emissions will, however increase the cost of energy; restrict travel and further impoverish all but the most wealthy. Another tool in the toolbox of our political and business leaders.
State Tyranny
On March 23rd 2020 the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to the nation on national television. He announced that the coronavirus is the biggest threat this country has faced for decades. He went on to say, "From this evening I must give the British people a very simple instruction – you must stay at home, Because the critical thing we must do is stop the disease spreading between households. That is why people will only be allowed to leave their home for the following very limited purposes:-
Shopping for basic necessities, as infrequently as possible
One form of exercise a day- for example a run, walk, or cycle – alone or with members of your household
Any medical need, to provide care or to help a vulnerable person and
Travelling to and from work, but only where this is absolutely necessary and cannot be done from home."
He went on to say that police will have powers to enforce these rules with fines and by dispersing gatherings. All shops selling non essential goods were closed along with libraries, playgrounds, outdoor gyms and places of worship. All social events were stopped including weddings and baptisms. These draconian measures were complied with by the vast majority of the population. Whether they made any difference to the progress of the disease is uncertain. What is clear is that the British political leaders did not comply themselves and some received tiny fines as a result. This do as I tell you, not as I do approach was a remarkable example of arrogance by the political elite. They demonstrated that they could massively restrict the freedom of the population and enforce compliance using the police while ignoring those restrictions themselves. Similar examples of state tyranny occurred in a number of other countries with the Chinese leadership demonstrating its ability to control every citizen in that country through surveillance; smart phones and, of course, the police. This exercise in state control of individual freedom provides a further tool in the toolbox of the political and business elites.
Food costs
The economic stimuli following the pandemic resulted in a sharp increase in the money supply. This coupled with a few other economic factors led to spiralling inflation. Food prices in particular rose sharply. Supermarket package sizes were reduced whilst prices went up. With the winter of 2023/24 approaching a number of people were faced with the choice of either eating or heating. Just as with energy and all other essentials this affects poor people to a much greater extent than the better off. The cost of food varies little across the income spectrum but if food costs are 40% of income a 50% increase takes that to 60%. If food costs are 1% of income that same 50% increase takes it to 1.5%. Yet another tool in the toolbox of the political and business elites
Green Tax increases
The expansion of the ULEZ zone in London has its greatest impact on people driving older vehicles that are not compliant with the latest emission standards. However, despite having huge and powerful engines, the latest Ferraris; Lamborghinis; Aston Martins; Bentleys and Rolls Royces are exempt! The most polluted air in London is on the underground railway system but very little is being done to improve it. Yet punitive taxation is applied to drivers of older vehicles on the pretext of improving air quality in the Capital. This is just one further example of political leaders increasing costs specifically aimed at the poorest sections of society. One more tool in the toolbox
Digital Currencies and the elimination of cash
The increasing use of electronic payment systems, (credit and debit cards; electronic bank transfers and digital currencies), provide bankers and politicians the ability to control how much we spend and what we spend it on. If a bank does not like what we want to spend our money on it can prevent the transaction from taking place. Currently used mostly to save customers from financial scams it is a small step to prevent them from spending their money on something the bank does not like. The recent case where Nigel Farage was denied banking facilities because of his political views shows just how close we are to having our spending controlled by banks and politicians. Cash remains our only means of paying who we want for what we want without a bank or government official having the power to stop us. However, cash cannot be used for large transactions and with ever fewer bank branches and ATMs the availability of cash is diminishing. Another tool in the tool box.
Transport Strikes; Potholes and Travel Costs
As I write this the train drivers are on strike and there are no trains operating in this region. The roads are in a terrible condition with dangerous potholes every few yards. Damage to tyres; wheels and suspension components is at an all time high costing motorists hundreds of millions of pounds in repair bills. Motorcyclists and cyclists risk injury and death on every journey. Least affected are the giant 4x4 SUVs driven by "yummy mummies" on the daily school run. Our political and business leaders tell us that the aim is to have 15 minute cities where everything everyone needs is within 15 minutes walk from where they live. People won't need cars as they will be able to walk to shops; offices; restaurants; parks and entertainment facilities. People will be encouraged to move to these urban centres by making commuting ever more difficult and expensive. Population surveillance and control is much easier in cities than in the countryside. More tools for the toolbox.
Religion; Family and National Identity
Adherence to organised religion is in decline with Christian church attendance falling steadily over a number of years. Those attending church tend to be mainly elderly so this trend is likely to continue. Changes in the law have provided opportunities for shopping; entertainment and sports on Sundays. These, together with a growing scepticism about religion being taught in schools and a series of scandals involving Anglican and Roman Catholic priests continue to drive down adherence to organised religion particularly among the young. Much valuable teaching about individual responsibility; morality and ethics is being lost as a result.
The traditional family unit is in decline due to increasing divorce rates; couples choosing not to marry; same sex marriages; abortions on demand and LGBTQ+ sexual orientations. These changes have been facilitated by politicians changing the law.
Mass immigration, both legal and illegal by people with very different cultural backgrounds and experience has affected the culture and the nature of nation states. There is much less national allegiance, (except perhaps at major sporting events), with a growing tendency towards trans and multi national groupings. The ever expanding European Union is a prime example. NATO and the United Nations are two others.
The Future
What our leaders have in mind for us remains elusive and there may not yet be a fully coherent plan. However, if we look at the straws in the wind we may be able to determine trends that will point us in the direction of travel. We might also look at the recipients of grants being made by the Soros; Gates and Rockefeller foundations. Economic changes caused by reducing CO2 emissions; targeted taxation and inflation will adversely affect the living standards and the health of poorer people in our societies. Political and business leaders will encourage populations to move to urban centres where they can be better monitored and controlled. Nations will merge and eventually cease to exist as independent entities. Government will be global by a technocratic elite unencumbered by the ballot box. Although perhaps of benign but somewhat selfish intent the leadership will eventually succumb to corruption and tyranny. It does not have to be this way. There is still time to insist upon retaining the individual freedoms that so many of our forefathers fought and died to achieve. We do not have to accept the false pseudoscience of anthropogenic climate change. We do not have to stop eating beef and lamb. We do not have to stop flying in fossil fuelled aeroplanes; we do not have to give up our cars and move to a 15 minute city. We might even begin to restore our belief in the importance of faith flag and family to our happiness and freedom.
