Successful American and British military action against Houthi targets in Yemen may not achieve positive results without negative consequences.
There are four seas that rule the supply chain world - the Caspian and its link to the Black Sea with its waterway to the Mediterranean with its canal to the Red Sea. This is a lot more than grain and oil but all sorts of raw materials and components. The West had to do something about this flashpoint along the sea chain, others of which include Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan, but any action risks inflaming public opinion in MENA countries.
At some point Russian and other Eastern strategists seem to have echoed American politicians at elections and concluded, "It's the economy stupid." The supply chain crisis kicked off by the pandemic just gave these people ideas. The blocking of Suez by a container ship was proof of concept as well, however accidental.
The supply chain war is also an information war. Dealing with one's own country's public opinion is hard enough without having to think a lot wider geographically and longer chronologically than any next election. Consequently, the West needs to keep up with technology for the technology to keep up with changing times and circumstances.
However, with digital media comes binary mentality. 'Us & them' thinking leads to 'guilt & blame' as the scourge of our age. In national politics this tendency is deeply unpleasant, but applied internationally - potentially rekindling historical grievances (real or otherwise) - the global consequences could be devastating.
With territorial wars, energy wars, supply chain wars or information wars, action and reaction should be the least easy options and most reluctant without a thorough understanding of origins, context and likely consequences.
There is no victory without a peaceful conclusion and peaceful coexistence with justice. Proxy wars are just that. The solution must ultimately lie with peaceful and equitable coexistence of East, West and Global South without anyone intending to dominate the others. The age of empires did not even wane, but changed its clothes a couple of times.
