Brexit is Working

We are pleased to publish this analysis by Sebastian James based on his blog at The Blue Anchor. 

PART ONE

I am going to use this dataset from the ONS (Office for National Statistics) as it goes back to 1955 allowing us to compare generational trends. People with political motives will always prefer this or that dataset, but as we shall see they all show pretty much the same pattern. Here is the full graph: 

You will see I've circled the end to highlight where we have just enjoyed the biggest improvement in our trade balance ever in our history EV-VER.

Keep your eye on the zero line. That indicates balanced trade (equal imports and exports). We see that it bounced around as volumes increased but that the BoP generally stuck to the zero line – we had balanced trade for three decades before Thatcher signed the Single European Act. So what happened next? This:

 George Osborne claimed that if we dared become an independent democracy again, then 820,000 would lose their jobs. Now we have the data we can see he was talking out of his hat.

I'm going to use this dataset from the ONS if you want to check the figures for yourself. Here's the graph:

What we see from the above chart is that when we joined unemployment was 3.5% (circled in red). After we joined it tripled. Then after we left in 2020 it returned to 3.5% for the first time in nearly half a century (again circled in red). During membership unemployment averaged DOUBLE what is was before or after membership.

Here is the unemployment data since the vote to leave:

We can see the Covid blip in 2020 which we can ignore; but basically unemployment has done the exact opposite of what Remainers promised – going from 5% in June 2016 to less than 4% now. We left the high unemployment club.

Here is the ONS dataset for employment:

Employment Summary:

Before joining – Good.                             During membership – Collapse                         After leaving – Recovery.